Skeptical Science New Research for Week #38 2022

 “Was it something I did?” 

Not so long ago Skeptical Science received email from a reader, subject: “Myth: increased deaths,  harm to health and and destruction of property cannot be attributed to global warming.”  As a matter of intuition and the evidence in front of us, this certainly seems a puzzling myth. All of us see headlines these days alluding to our damaged climate damaging us, after all.

But how do we know we’re hearing straight reporting on that? Our answer lies in scientifically conducted researchOur correspondent hoped that we would compose an article addressing the “physics has no impact on the physical world including us” myth, and we’re working on that. Highlighted today is an article illustrating part of the complexity in creating this rebuttal.

In the meanwhile, over the course of a few editions of New Research we can see reports of climate change impacts on human well-being happening today, mostly of a hydrological or agricultural nature and— crucially— mostly in places with high vulnerability, what engineers would call “low-margin designs.”  These events often happen in locales and to people most of us in the “developed world” don’t think about. They’re not dramatic enough to warrant headlines, but they do add up and of course real people are being harmed.

When vulnerable people are harmed as an easily identifable and conspicuously large group, attention spreads beyond that of specialist researchers and into the mind of the general public. Pakistan of course has gained focus over the past few week as the full effects of statistical increases and changes in heat and rainfall become combine to put 1/3rd of the country underwater thereby collapsing the country’s agriculture and producing an instant public health crisis for a nation unable to buy its way out of trouble. Climate change deniers would like us to think of “climate catastrophe” as some kind of joke but here no other word than “catastrophe” is adequate to describe the situation. 

But is this a “climate catastrophe?” What’s the role of climate change in Pakistan’s partial destruction? Their report listed in this edition’s government/NGO section anticipates traditional peer-reviewed academic analysis, but the practiitioners at World Weather Attribution (WWA) are drawn from academia and work to academic standards. Their report Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan doesn’t offer a hard answer. As with the organization’s other products the authors dispassonionately follow “here’s the best the we know.” The anthropogenic part, as summarized in the report:

  • First, looking just at the trends in the observations, we found that the 5-day maximum rainfall over the provinces Sindh and Balochistan is now about 75% more intense than it would have been had the climate not warmed by 1.2C, whereas the 60-day rain across the basin is now about 50% more intense, meaning rainfall this heavy is now more likely to happen. There are large uncertainties in these estimates due to the high variability in rainfall in the region, and observed changes can have a variety of drivers, including, but not limited to, climate change.
  • Secondly, to determine the role of human-induced climate change in these observed changes we looked at the trends in climate models with and without the human-induced increases in greenhouse gases. The regions involved are at the western extreme end of the monsoon region, with large differences in rainfall characteristics between dry western and wet eastern areas.
  • Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change.
  • However, for the 5-day rainfall extreme, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50% for the 5-day event definition.

So in Pakistan it’s “probably.” We can’t quite say “it was climate change.” Elsewhere the situation is different. Earlier this year South Africa experienced devastating floods and in that case our ability to form conclusions was better informed, with WWA crisply concluding that Climate change-exacerbated rainfall causing devastating flooding in Eastern South Africa. Both of these WWA articles are founded on and draw from a solid lineage of scientific research, and are only the tip of an iceberg of similar attribution work. We can certainly see a path to a rebuttal dealing with the myth that “increased deaths,  harm to health and and destruction of property cannot be attributed to global warming.”

Other notables: 

Investigating Benefits and Challenges of Converting Retiring Coal Plants into Nuclear Plants. With relatively fragile populations such as Pakistan’s and others having small carbon footprints being crushed under the clumsy XXL carbon boots of more fortunately circumstanced nations, it seems as though an interesting discussion could be had about how preciously self-concerned the beneficiaries of huge fleets of coal plants should be with regard to coal-nuke conversion.

A library of polytypic copper-based quaternary sulfide nanocrystals enables efficient solar-to-hydrogen conversion. One of these days a research paper to change our energy world will come along— as they do from time to time— and it’ll probably have an innocuous and humble title like this one— as they do. Meanwhile, Wu et al. may not immediately be turning our world upside down but they do show how to  employ a handful of common elements to more reliably produce photocatalysts easily tuned to harness sunlight so as to crack hydgrogen from water. 

Undone science in climate interventions: Contrasting and contesting anticipatory assessments by expert networks. A deeply founded article exploring how carbon removal and solar geonengineering collide with systems modeling underpinning our understanding of climate change impacts and mitigation, and ultimately assessments driving important decisions. This paper is not a review but its citations offer a mini-education the emergence, travails and progress of both carbon removal and solar geoengineering.

Estimating the likelihood of GHG concentration scenarios from probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model simulationsSpeaking of  integrated assessments, they in turn are driven by scenarios, possibilities of how our future emerges. Huard et al. point out: “climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities,” then begin to fill the gap. SSP5-8.5 an unlikely feature of the 21st century but after that things become hazy. The authors identify paths toward refining results. 

162 articles in 60 journals by 1,020 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Moist Static Energy Transport Trends in Four Global Reanalyses: Are They Downgradient?
Clark et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl098822

Oceanic Electrical Conductivity Variability From Observations and Its Budget From an Ocean State Estimate
Trossman & Tyler Tyler, [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10512150.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Antarctic Bottom Water Warming and Circulation Slowdown in the Argentine Basin from Analyses of Deep Argo and Historical Shipboard Temperature Data
Johnson, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100526

Associated Summer Rainfall Changes over the Three Rivers Source Region in China with the East Asian Westerly Jet from 1979 to 2015
Liu et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 10.1175/jamc-d-21-0127.1

Increasing wildfire impacts on snowpack in the western U.S.
Kampf et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2200333119

Ninety years of coastal monitoring reveals baseline and extreme ocean temperatures are increasing off the Finnish coast
Goebeler et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00545-z

Observed and projected global warming pressure on coastal hypoxia
Whitney, Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-4479-2022

Persistent Positive Anomalies in Geopotential Heights Promote Wildfires in Western North America
Sharma et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0926.1

Recent Early-Spring Drying Trend over Southern China Associated with Changes in the Zonal Thermal Contrast over the Pacific
Li et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0891.1

The severity of heat and cold waves amplified by high relative humidity in humid subtropical basins: a case study in the Gan River Basin, China
Zhang et al., Natural Hazards, Open Access 10.1007/s11069-022-05577-4

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020
Teng et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0437.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Combining Cloud Properties from CALIPSO, CloudSat, and MODIS for Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Shortwave Broadband Irradiance Computations: Impact of Cloud Vertical Profiles
Ham et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 10.1175/jamc-d-21-0260.1

GESLA Version 3: A major update to the global higher-frequency sea-level dataset
Haigh et al., Geoscience Data Journal, Open Access pdf 10.1002/gdj3.174

Modeling the start of frozen dates with leaf senescence over Tibetan Plateau
Li et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113258

Southern Ocean precipitation: Toward a process-level understanding
Siems et al., WIREs Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.800

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Arctic Ocean freshwater in CMIP6 coupled models
Wang et al., Earth’s Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef002878

Changes in Global Heat Waves and Its Socioeconomic Exposure in a Warmer Future
Yin et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100459

Climatology and trends of wintertime diurnal temperature range over East Asia in CMIP6 models: Evaluation and attribution
Liu et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106438

Continued Warming of the Permafrost Regions Over the Northern Hemisphere Under Future Climate Change
Hu et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002835

Continued weakening of the equatorial Pacific upwelling annual cycle in CMIP5 future projections
Wang et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-19874-2

Con?dential manuscript submitted to Geophysical Research Letters Summer midlatitude stationary wave patterns synchronize Northern Hemisphere wildfire occurrence
Bui et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099017

How Unexpected Was the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave?
McKinnon & Simpson Simpson, [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10511999.1

Navigability of the Northern Sea Route for Arc7 ice-class vessels during winter and spring sea-ice conditions
Chen et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.09.005

Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere-Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 1. Inter-Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity
Karpechko et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036992

Projection of temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean region through multi-model ensemble from CMIP6
Seker & Gumus, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106440

Relative controls of vapor pressure deficit and soil water stress on canopy conductance in global simulations by an Earth system model
Fang & Leung, Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002810

Smaller Sensitivity of Precipitation to Surface Temperature Under Massive Atmospheres
Xiong et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl099599

The BEAP Teleconnection and Its Relationship With ENSO in CMIP6: Present and Future Projections
Gui & Yang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037073

The Contribution of Climate Change to Increasing Extreme Ocean Warming around Japan
Hayashi et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100785

The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100
Brown et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-218

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Aircraft observations of turbulence in cloudy and cloud-free boundary layers over the Western North Atlantic Ocean from ACTIVATE and implications for Earth system model evaluation and development
Brunke et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036480

Bias correction of surface air temperature and precipitation in CORDEX East Asia simulation: What should we do when applying bias correction?
Chen et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106439

Cloud and surface albedo feedbacks reshape 21st Century warming in successive generations of an Earth System Model
Schneider et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100653

Compensating Errors in Cloud Radiative and Physical Properties over the Southern Ocean in the CMIP6 Climate Models
Zhao et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00376-022-2036-z

Confidence and Uncertainty in Simulating Tropical Cyclone Long-Term Variability Using the CMIP6-HighResMIP
Song et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0875.1

Correcting Systematic Bias in Climate Model Simulations in the Time-Frequency Domain
Kusumastuti et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100550

Evaluating Tropical Precipitation Relations in CMIP6 Models with ARM Data
Emmenegger et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0386.1

Evaluation of soil moisture in CMIP6 multi-model simulations over conterminous China
Wang et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10510060.1

Ningaloo Niño/Niña in CMIP6 models: Characteristics, mechanisms and climate impacts
Xue et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099781

On the simulation of northeast monsoon rainfall over southern peninsular India in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Sreekala et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04194-2

Resolving Away Stratocumulus Biases in Modern Global Climate Models
Lee et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099422

Role of Interhemispheric Heat Transport and Global Atmospheric Cooling in Multidecadal Trends of Northern Hemisphere Precipitation
Yukimoto et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100335

The distinct problems of physical inconsistency and of multivariate bias involved in the statistical adjustment of climate simulations
Alavoine & Grenier, [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5c34c

The impact of surface heterogeneity on the diurnal cycle of deep convection
Harvey et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 10.1002/qj.4371

Using Ice Cores to Evaluate CMIP6 Aerosol Concentrations Over the Historical Era
Moseid et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2021jd036105

Cryosphere & climate change

An improved and observationally-constrained melt rate parameterization for vertical ice fronts of marine terminating glaciers
Schulz et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100654

Black carbon and dust alter the response of mountain snow cover under climate change
Réveillet et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-32501-y

Brief communication: Combining borehole temperature, borehole piezometer and cross-borehole electrical resistivity tomography measurements to investigate changes in ice-rich mountain permafrost
Phillips et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-165

Estimating glacier mass balance in High Mountain Asia based on MODIS retrieved surface albedo from 2000 to 2020
Xiao et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7873

Hydrography, circulation, and response to atmospheric forcing in the vicinity of the central Getz Ice Shelf, Amundsen Sea, Antarctica
Dundas et al., Ocean Science, Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-18-1339-2022

Lake ice will be less safe for recreation and transportation under future warming
Woolway et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002907

Precursor of disintegration of Greenland’s largest floating ice tongue
Humbert et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-171

Solid Water Melt Dominates the Increase of Total Groundwater Storage in the Tibetan Plateau
Zou et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100092

Vulnerability of Denman Glacier to ocean heat flux revealed by profiling float observations
van Wijk et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100460

Sea level & climate change

A demonstration of a simple methodology of flood prediction for a coastal city under threat of sea level rise: THE CASE OF NORFOLK, VA, USA
Ezer, Earth’s Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef002786

Absolute Sea Level Changes Along the Coast of China From Tide Gauges, GNSS, and Satellite Altimetry
Zhou et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018994

Effects of Anthropogenic Forcings on Multidecadal Variability of the Sea Level around the Japanese Coast Simulated by MRI-ESM2.0 for CMIP6
Ushijima et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099987

The Sources of Sea-Level Changes in the Mediterranean Sea since 1960
Calafat et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019061

Paleoclimate

Multiple carbon cycle mechanisms associated with the glaciation of Marine Isotope Stage 4
Menking et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33166-3

Sensitivity of the Ross Ice Shelf to environmental and glaciological controls
Baldacchino et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022

Strong asymmetry of interhemispheric ice volume during MIS11, MIS 9 and MIS 7 drives heterogeneity of interglacial precipitation intensity over Asia
Cheng et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100269

Subglacial precipitates record Antarctic ice sheet response to late Pleistocene millennial climate cycles
Piccione et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33009-1

The contribution of vegetation-climate feedback and resultant sea ice loss to amplified Arctic warming during the mid-Holocene
Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl098816

Thermal coupling of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Southern Ocean over the past 30,000 years
Zhang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33206-y

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate and anthropogenic controls of seaweed expansions in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea
Qi et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl098185

Climate change increases global risk to urban forests
Esperon-Rodriguez et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01465-8

Climate legacy effects shape tallgrass prairie nitrogen cycling
Broderick et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006972

Development of climate tipping damage metric for life-cycle assessment—the influence of increased warming from the tipping
Fabbri et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10.1007/s11367-022-02096-z

Evidence for evolutionary adaptation of mixotrophic nanoflagellates to warmer temperatures
Lepori-Bui et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1101/2022.02.03.479051

Increasing and widespread vulnerability of intact tropical rainforests to repeated droughts
Tao et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2116626119

Insights into coastal phytoplankton variations from 1979 to 2018 derived from Ba/Ca records in scallop shells (Chlamys islandica) from a fishing ground in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence
Pierre et al., Marine Environmental Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105734

Lethal and sublethal effects of thermal stress on octocorals early life history stages
Viladrich et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16433

Managing biodiversity in the Anthropocene: discussing the Nature Futures Framework as a tool for adaptive decision-making for nature under climate change
Palacios-Abrantes et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01200-4

Potential Effects of Environmental Conditions on Prairie Dog Flea Development and Implications for Sylvatic Plague Epizootics
Samuel et al., EcoHealth, 10.1007/s10393-022-01615-6

Predicting range shifts of the giant pandas under future climate and land use scenarios
Liu et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9298

Resistance of subarctic soil fungal and invertebrate communities to disruption of belowground carbon supply
Parker et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.13994

Response of distribution patterns of two closely related species in Taxus genus to climate change since last inter-glacial
Wu et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9302

Responses of early life stages of European abalone (Haliotis tuberculata) to ocean acidification after parental conditioning: Insights from a transgenerational experiment
Auzoux-Bordenave et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105753

Rising temperatures threaten pollinators of fig trees—Keystone resources of tropical forests
van Kolfschoten et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9311

The effect of carbon fertilization on naturally regenerated and planted US forests
Davis et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33196-x

The relative influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on the benthic composition of an Indo-Pacific and Caribbean coral reef over the last decade
Johnson et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9263

Using temporal genomics to understand contemporary climate change responses in wildlife
Jensen & Leigh, Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9340

Vegetation productivity under climate change depends on landscape complexity in tropical drylands
de Araujo et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10033-6

Warming reverses directionality in the richness–abundance relationship in ephemeral Mediterranean plant communities
Madrigal?González et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3870

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Allometric equations and wood density parameters for estimating aboveground and woody debris biomass in Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi) forests of northeast Siberia
Delcourt & Veraverbeke Veraverbeke, Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-4499-2022

Contribution of Carbon Fixation Toward Carbon Sink in the Ocean Twilight Zone
Saxena et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099044

Effects of establishing cultivated grassland on soil organic carbon fractions in a degraded alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau
Liu et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.14012

Estimating the likelihood of GHG concentration scenarios from probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model simulations
Huard et al., Earth’s Future, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef002715

Future land use/land cover change has non-trivial and potentially dominant impact on global gross primary productivity
Hou et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2021ef002628

Global soil profiles indicate depth-dependent soil carbon losses under a warmer climate
Wang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33278-w

High-resolution vertical biogeochemical profiles in the hyporheic zone reveal insights into microbial methane cycling
Michaelis et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-373

Influence of the conservation mode of seawater for dissolved organic carbon analysis
Fourrier et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105754

Monitoring changes in global soil organic carbon stocks from space
Padarian et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113260

Number of chamber measurement locations for accurate quantification of landscape-scale greenhouse gas fluxes: Importance of land use, seasonality, and greenhouse gas type
Wangari et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006901

Peatland Heterogeneity Impacts on Regional Carbon Flux and its Radiative Effect within a Boreal Landscape
Kou et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2021jg006774

Refining the global estimate of mangrove carbon burial rates using sedimentary and geomorphic settings
Steinmuller, DigiNole, Open Access 10.33009/fsu_1655915511

Soil respiration response to simulated precipitation change depends on ecosystem type and study duration
Morris et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006887

Using Multiscale Ethane/Methane Observations to Attribute Coal Mine Vent Emissions in the San Juan Basin From 2013 to 2021
Meyer et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037092

Vegetation-Promoted Soil Structure Inhibits Hydrologic Landslide Triggering and Alters Carbon Fluxes
Fan et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100389

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Undone science in climate interventions: Contrasting and contesting anticipatory assessments by expert networks
Low et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.08.026

Decarbonization

A library of polytypic copper-based quaternary sulfide nanocrystals enables efficient solar-to-hydrogen conversion
Wu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33065-7

Aging, generational shifts, and energy consumption in urban China
Han et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2210853119

An assessment of observed wind speed and wind power density over China for 1980–2021
Li et al., Wind Energy, 10.1002/we.2783

Development of a multi-region power system risk management model for supporting China’s carbon neutrality ambition in 2060’s
Li et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2021ef002230

Dynamic scenario analysis of CO2 emission in China’s cement industry by 2100 under the context of cutting overcapacity
Xu et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10028-3

Economic and employment effects of China’s power transition based on input?output and scenario simulation
Sun et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.09.001

Geoengineering climate

A subpolar-focused stratospheric aerosol injection deployment scenario
Smith et al., Environmental Research Communications, Open Access 10.1088/2515-7620/ac8cd3

Impact of the latitude of stratospheric aerosol injection on the Southern Annular Mode
Bednarz et al., [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10511879.1

Undone science in climate interventions: Contrasting and contesting anticipatory assessments by expert networks
Low et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.08.026

Black carbon

Meteorological export and deposition fluxes of Black Carbon on glaciers of the central Chilean Andes
Lapere et al., SSRN Electronic Journal, Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.4090303

Satellite (GOSAT-2 CAI-2) retrieval and surface (ARFINET) observations of Aerosol Black Carbon over India
Gogoi et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-555

Aerosols

Fire–climate interactions through the aerosol radiative effect in a global chemistry–climate–vegetation model
Tian et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-175

Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing
Quaas et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-295

Climate change communications & cognition

Climate change knowledge influences attitude to mitigation via efficacy beliefs
Hurst Loo & Walker, Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.14026

Concerned yet polluting: A survey on French research personnel and climate change
Blanchard et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000070

Dialectic narratives, hostile actors, and Earth’s resources in Saskatchewan, Canada
Hurlbert & Akpan, Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01214-y

You vs. us: framing adaptation behavior in terms of private or social benefits
, No Poverty, Open Access 10.1007/978-3-319-95714-2_300242

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A district-level analysis for measuring the effects of climate change on production of rice: evidence from Southern India
Saravanakumar et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04198-y

An ecosystem service approach to the study of vineyard landscapes in the context of climate change: a review
Candiago et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01223-x

Analysis of the impact of climate change on grapevines in Turkey using heat unit accumulation–based indices
An et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02360-9

Examining complementary relationships among climate change adaptation practices of rice producers in Chitwan, Nepal
Regmi et al., Climate and Development, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2022.2107980

Examining complementary relationships among climate change adaptation practices of rice producers in Chitwan, Nepal
Regmi et al., Climate and Development, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2022.2107980

Future Food Security in Africa Under Climate Change
Beltran?Peña & D’Odorico Jyosthnaa , Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002651

Greenhouse gas mitigation co-benefits across the global agricultural development programs
Khatri-Chhetri et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102586

Pest population dynamics are related to a continental overwintering gradient
Lawton et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2203230119

Quantifying the Natural Climate Solution Potential of Agricultural Systems by Combining Eddy Covariance and Remote Sensing
Wiesner et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006895

Unraveling the effects of management and climate on carbon fluxes of U.S. croplands using the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem (LTAR) network
Menefee et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109154

Vulnerability of crop water footprint in rain-fed and irrigation agricultural production system under future climate scenarios
Jiang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109164

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Contrasting Fate of Western Third Pole’s Water Resources Under 21st Century Climate Change
Su et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002776

Glacier contributions to river discharge during the current Chilean megadrought
McCarthy et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002852

Global Increases in Lethal Compound Heat Stress- Hydrological Drought Hazards under Climate Change
Yin et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100880

Greater flash flood risks from hourly precipitation extremes preconditioned by heatwaves in the Yangtze River Valley
Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099485

Is there a coherence in observed and projected changes in riverine low flow indices across Central Europe?
Piniewski et al., Earth, Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104187

Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management
Blauhut et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/nhess-2021-276

Sahel Rainfall Projections Constrained by Past Sensitivity to Global Warming
Schewe & Levermann Levermann, [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10510691.1

Spatio-temporal variability of temperature and precipitation in a Himalayan watershed
Nabi et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05616-0

Climate change economics

Does the European Union energy policy support progress in decoupling economic growth from emissions?
Papie? et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113247

Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries
Perdana & Vielle, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113245

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Aging, generational shifts, and energy consumption in urban China
Han et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2210853119

Could SO2 and CO2 emissions trading schemes achieve co-benefits of emissions reduction?
Hu et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113252

Energy efficiency improves energy access affordability
de la Rue du Can et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.09.003

Environmental Policy and the CO2 Emissions Embodied in International Trade
Assogbavi & Dées, Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00734-6

Green electricity and Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin demand analysis for Türkiye
Calikoglu & Aydinalp Koksal, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113229

Is local grid parity affordable in China? Discussion on the regional wind power potential and investment returns under policy uncertainty
Wu & Zhang Zhang, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113254

Methane regulation in the EU: Stakeholder perspectives on MRV and emissions reductions
Olczak et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.09.002

Producer services development and manufacturing carbon intensity: Evidence from an international perspective
Jin et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113253

Styles of decarbonization
Bhardwaj, Environmental Politics, 10.1080/09644016.2022.2113611

The effectiveness of household energy transition interventions in a coal-using community on the South African Highveld
Phogole et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.09.006

The use of scenarios in climate policy planning: an assessment of actors’ experiences and lessons learned in Finland
Aro et al., Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2123773

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Climate change adaptation mechanisms and strategies of coal-fired power plants
Wei et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10031-8

Development of a survey instrument to assess individual and organizational use of climate adaptation science
Courtney et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.08.023

Perception on coastal erosion: An assessment of how national level coastal resilience strategies promote indigenous knowledge and affect local level adaptation in Ghanaian communities
Arkhurst et al., Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.08.019

The administrator’s dilemma: Closing the gap between climate adaptation justice in theory and practice
Siders, Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.08.022

The risk management tools’role for urban infrastructure resilience building
de Magalhães et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101296

You vs. us: framing adaptation behavior in terms of private or social benefits
, No Poverty, Open Access 10.1007/978-3-319-95714-2_300242

Climate change impacts on human health

Estimating the Burden of Heat-related illness morbidity Attributable to Anthropogenic Climate Change in North Carolina
Puvvula et al., GeoHealth, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gh000636

Exploring the thermal limits of malaria transmission in the western Himalaya
Mozaffer et al., Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9278

Potential Effects of Environmental Conditions on Prairie Dog Flea Development and Implications for Sylvatic Plague Epizootics
Samuel et al., EcoHealth, 10.1007/s10393-022-01615-6

Probabilistic modeling and identifying fluctuations in annual extreme heatwave regimes of Karachi
Rizvi et al., Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 10.1007/s00703-022-00927-0

Other

Impacts of basal melting of the Totten Ice Shelf and biological productivity on marine biogeochemical components in Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica
Tamura et al., [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10510302.2

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Closing in on the last frontier: C allocation in the rhizosphere
Obersteiner & Klein, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16432

Counteracting wildfire misinformation
Jones et al., Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 10.1002/fee.2553

Monitoring nature’s calendar from space: emerging topics in land surface phenology and associated opportunities for science applications
Ma et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16436

Re-thinking research impact: voice, context and power at the interface of science, policy and practice
Reed & Rudman, Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01216-w

Strategic communication as planned behavior for science and risk communication: A theory-based approach to studying communicator choice
Besley & Dudo , Risk Analysis, Open Access 10.1111/risa.14029

What’s on the agenda? UN climate change negotiation agendas since 1995
Allan & Bhandary, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2120453

Book reviews

Klimat. Russia in the age of climate change
Price, Canadian Slavonic Papers, Open Access 10.1080/00085006.2022.2104550


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Private Equity Climate Risks. Scorecard 2022, Private Equity Stakeholder Project and Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund

The authors discussed the top eight private equity buyout firms invested in oil and gas and includes a set of recommendations to hold private equity accountable for the risks in their fossil fuel portfolios, the harmful impacts they have on the environment and frontline communities, and the need to execute a just energy transition. The scorecard assesses and ranks the fossil fuel portfolios and progress toward an energy transition of eight of the largest private equity firms. These eight firms oversee a combined $3.6 trillion in assets under management.

Climate Change: Severity of Efects and Expectations of Displacement, Ipsos

On average across 34 countries, more than half of all adults surveyed (56%) say climate change has already had a severe effect in the area where they live. More than seven in ten (71%), including a majority in every single country, expect climate change will have a severe effect in their area over the next 10 years. One-third (35%) expect to be displaced from their home as a result of climate change in the next 25 years.

Brighter Future. A Study on Solar in U.S. K-12 Schools, Generation180

Over 6 million students attend the 8,409 K-12 schools across the United States that are generating solar energy. Nearly one in ten (9%) K-12 schools (including public, independent, and charter schools) has adopted solar technology. Solar energy is being utilized by almost one in five (19%) public school districts. With 1,644 megawatts (MW) of cumulative installed capacity, the nation’s schools now generate enough solar energy to power the electricity use of 300,000 homes each year. That is enough electricity to power all the households in cities the size of Washington, D.C., Boston, or Denver.

Investigating Benefits and Challenges of Converting Retiring Coal Plants into Nuclear Plants, Hansen et al, Department of Energy

A coal-to-nuclear (C2N) transition means siting a nuclear reactor at the site of a recently retired coal power plant. Three overarching questions from the C2N transition guide this research: where in the United States are retired coal facilities located and what factors make a site feasible for transition; what factors of technology, cost, and project timeline drive investor economics over such a decision; and how will C2N impact local communities? The authors evaluated the siting characteristics of recently retired plants and those operating coal-fired power plant sites run by a utility or an independent power producer utilizing publicly available data to screen U.S. coal power plant sites to nuclear-feasible locations. After screening all retired coal sites to a set of 157 potential candidates and screening operating sites to a set of 237 candidates, the authors estimate that 80% of retired and operating coal power plant sites that were evaluated have the basic characteristics needed to be considered amenable to host an advanced nuclear reactor. For the recently retired plant sites evaluated, this represents a capacity potential of 64.8 GWe to be backfit at 125 sites. For the operating plant sites evaluated, this represents a capacity potential of 198.5 GWe to be backfit at 190 sites.

Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan, Otto et al, World Weather Attribution

Pakistan is reported to have received more than 3 times its usual rainfall in August, making it the wettest August since 1961. The two southern provinces, Sindh and Balochistan, each experienced their wettest August ever recorded, receiving 7 and 8 times their usual monthly totals. The Indus river, which runs the length of the country, burst its banks across thousands of square kilometers, while the intense rainfall also led to urban flash floods, and landslides. The rains and resulting flooding affected over 33 million people, destroyed 1.7 million homes, and nearly 1500 people lost their lives

Health Care and the Climate Crisis: Preparing America’s Health Care Infrastructure, House Ways and Means Committee

The House Ways and Means Committee sent out a Request for Information to hospitals, health systems, and other facility-based health providers to better understand how climate events have impacted the health sector, as well as steps the health care industry is taking to address its role in mitigating the climate crisis. Respondents to the RFI included 63 providers across the country, representing, health systems, dialysis companies, nursing home corporations, and community health centers, among others. 14 of the total 63 respondents were classified as “climate innovators” – providers the Committee had previously engaged with and targeted for their existing climate programs. The Committee also received responses from 13 trade associations representing members that spanned the continuum of care. Due to the accelerated rate of extreme weather events across the country, a majority of respondents (54 out of 63) said they had experienced at least one such event in the last five years – with more than half experiencing five or more events in the last five years. In many cases, the cost of repairing damages from extreme weather events totaled in the millions, as some providers said they struggled to recover years later. Despite the near-universal interruptions to operations, only a little more than a third of respondents said they had implemented formal climate action or preparedness plans to limit organizational risk in the face of future weather events. Still, most respondents acknowledged the importance of preparing for climate-driven natural disasters and pointed to ways federal, state, and local authorities could provide support in the coming years. Respondents reported a diversity in experiences grappling with carbon emissions. Some respondents reported having long-established and public sustainability goals; clear tools to measure their scopes 1, 2, and 3 emissions; and data showing millions of dollars in cost savings associated with the measures. Others had yet to create sustainability goals. Those who had clearly defined goals, measures, and outcomes related to curbing their respective carbon emissions provided insights into the ways targeted interventions could reduce costs. Still, even for respondents who had well-formed climate programs in place, barriers persist – from defining and accurately measuring scope 3 emissions to raising the start-up funds for capital improvement projects.

Navigating an Electric Vehicle Future. Proceedings of a Workshop, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles will play a critical role in decarbonizing the transportation sector as the nation moves toward net-zero emissions. Recent announcements from automakers and the federal government, as well as provisions in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, aim to stimulate electric vehicle (EV) deployment, and ongoing technology improvements continue to make EVs a more affordable and practical option. However, many challenges remain to meet the needs of all buyers and drivers and to ensure that manufacturing supply chains and the electric system can support this large-scale transformation. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a 4-day virtual workshop on October 25-28, 2021, to identify some of the challenges to widespread EV deployment and discuss policy, technical, and market strategies to help federal agencies and other stakeholders plan for the future. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

Minnesota’s Climate Action Framework, Climate Change Subcabine, State of Minnesota

The framework sets a vision for how Minnesota will address and prepare for climate change. It identifies immediate, near-term actions that Minnesota must take to achieve its long-term vision of a carbon-neutral, resilient, and equitable future for our state. The framework is a foundational document designed to broadly guide the direction of climate action in the state for many years.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

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